With a view to an MLS playoff tourney that doesn't kick off for over two months, I have determined the quintet of teams I feel have a legitimate chance to raise silver at Qwest Field on November 22nd.They may be current kings of the hill in possession of the crown or they may be a team of struggle that I just feel has been through their worst already. I am factoring in everything from road record to squad susceptibility to key injury to my own sniveling, stubborn biases. Yep, I said it.
Actually, my picks aren't that crazy, with the top four teams from my latest MLS Club Ladder over at S365 in the list - albeit not in the same order.
No honorable mentions today. If you can't make this Top 5, that's that. D.C. and Real Salt Lake can't win on the road, while Seattle and Toronto FC are still tweaking the backline in mid-August, never a great indicator.
And away we go...
#5 - Colorado Rapids
This is my "just enough" selection. The Rapids are just tight enough in defense, just wily enough in midfield and just feisty enough on the road to be a surprise finalist.
They are also just likely enough to suddenly blow a team out thanks to the trauma-inducing presence of Omar "Oh my God, he's coming straight at me" Cummings and Conor "Mommy, the big, bald man scared me" Casey.
The injury to Colin Clark definitely hurts, but Scottish rookie Jamie Smith looks like a good find and Kosuke Kimera has strengthened the left side admirably.
#4 - Los Angeles Galaxy
Oh, it really could happen this time. No, it could. The Galaxy should make the playoffs and then anything goes.
They have the magic Ricketts/Beckham/Donovan triad capable of grabbing any game by the throat, plus they now have this new thing called... (Jon Stewart card check)... a "legit line-up around the stars". Of course, they also have Da Bruce.
Then again, until I feel like they are at least a 50/50 shot to win in Houston, I can't possibly put them above fourth.
#3 - Columbus Crew
Here I go, ticking off Crew crazies again. I must be plum stupid (as one may suggest in my defense).
The thing is, Ohio's rowdiest, I don't think they can win an East final against the firm of Temoc, McBride & Conde in Chicago, and I do believe the Fire - four points back with a game in hand - will finish the regular season in first place.
Not only do the Cup holders have Champions League to worry about, unlike the Fire, but they also have a tough MLS remaining schedule and still must visit Toyota Park on September 20th. And it may not be as simple to re-integrate Guille Schelotto into what they're doing now as one might assume. In many ways, the peak may have come too soon.
I rest my case. Now, could some officers please escort me from the courthouse. Those people in yellow are kinda freakin' me out.
#2 - Chicago Fire
It may seem funny to tab a team as finalist when they have been recently decimated by injuries and have yet to really show their potential best this season. In the wacky world of MLS, however, I'd tell you those were positives in their favor.
There is also a great blend of veterans and youngsters, with several of them gaining experience while the likes of Blanco, Conde, McBride, Segares, Thorrington and Ward missed games. Most of those players will be back by mid-September, given enough time to find form and enough rest to be a little fresher in November.
Brian McHead may not be back for the playoffs, but I won't be counting him out yet... will you? Even in his absence, Chris Rolfe has stepped it up and a fill-in defense has posted four clean sheets in five.
The Fire best may indeed still be ahead.
(click for wallpaper size, Robertson nuts)#1 - Houston Dynamo
Early season swoon? Check.
Mighty resurgence as the weather warms? Check.
Add goal threat(s) mid-season? Check.
A little summer turbulence due to international call-ups? Check.
Depth/squad balance that doesn't seem fair by MLS standards? Check.
MLS Cup experience? Check.
Houston, we have no problem whatsoever. All systems are a go.
- Greg Seltzer
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7 comments:
Do you have a sense from your interviews with players and folks around the league what will come out of the next CBA negotiations? Obviously we've all heard about the $12,000 pittance that entry-level players get, and it seems to be absurdly difficult for MLS clubs to sign youth players that they develop, but what do folks expect to see happen this time around in terms of substantive changes to salary cap, salaries, etc?
Personally, I think the league's done a good job managing growth and making sure it's a viable concern, but I do hope clubs can increase their roster size, increase the amount they pay young talent, etc.
I thought one of the most interesting observations in The Beckham Experiment came from Chris Klein, or some other Galaxy vet: that MLS as it stands now is a league full of promising youngsters and aging veterans with very little in between (i.e., few solid, well-compensated veterans). I think it would be a shame if the league doesn't allow teams to spend more both to keep more promising youngsters (e.g., Preston Zimmerman) and stockpile savvy MLS vets (e.g, Jessie Marsh).
I really have not delved into this matter at all when talking with people, but I will a bit down the road. Just other things taking my focus this summer.
But I cannot imagine that the minimum would stay that low. They just can't justify it.
Roster size? Well, we shall see. I'd like to hope for sanity, but know better by now.
Yea, it's hard for me to imagine--admittedly knowing absolutely zero about league finances--that even doubling the salary cap to $4-$5 million a year would somehow put the league in deep financial jeopardy.
The league would be so much more watchable if it could hold on to more guys like Clarence Goodson, Sztela, Marcus Tracy, etc. I know those aren't always purely financial decisions by the players, but still...
Good list, I would have agreed with you on Colorado earlier in the season, but there's a good chance they won't even make the play-offs.
You deserve any crap that you get from Crew supporters, you're selling them way too short. They're right up there with Houston in my opinion.
Moreno is a very underrated striker. Early in his career, he seemed like a clown who was always flopping and trying to draw free kicks. He's very effective in this role with Columbus and works his tail off to get into dangerous spots.
@ George: Moreno has been very poor this season and now comes off the bench. Without Steven Lenhart, that team would still be worrying over a playoff spot.
I have the Crew at #1 on my MLS Club Ladder now, but Houston was clearly the best team in the league before the month of international absences started. I feel they will be again.
And of course, we all know only two teams have managed to repeat as MLS champs.
Good list, Greg. As much as I don't want to give Seattle more credit than they've already given themselves, I would probably put them slightly ahead of Colorado. It's a fair argument, though.
And regarding the CBA, the thing that interests me about MLS in comparison to the NFL, MLB and NBA is international competition. Where the other leagues don't have any current, real competition to stay competitive with, MLS owners have to think about leagues all over the world. This is the one thing that keeps me cautiously optimistic about some real concessions.
United's one win on the road and stunning form of late was not enough to convince you that they are a real contender this season?
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